M1 - PPI
202510
最新值:8.3%
前值:9.5%
| 说明 |
投资者经常用M1-PPI来形容股票市场的剩余流动性，大体逻辑在于，M1代表市场上的钱，PPI代表进入实体经济的钱，于是两者相减，即代表漏出到金融市场的钱。 |
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M1 - PPI 剩余流动性指标
①信用周期可以较大程度形容A股市场的剩余流动性环境。当信用大幅扩张的时候，也是企业部门能够通过各种手段大量拿到便宜资金的时候， 于是这一阶段，一般都会发生所谓的“脱实入虚”，即企业部门将拿到的资金投入房地产市场或者金融市场。
②作为一个验证，信用周期的指标可以很好的同M1-PPI相互拟合。投资者经常用M1-PPI来形容股票市场的剩余流动性，大体逻辑在于，M1代 表市场上的钱，PPI代表进入实体经济的钱，于是两者相减，即代表漏出到金融市场的钱。
③最终，信用周期表征的剩余流动性，很大程度决定了A股市场整体估值的水位。
【天风证券研究所】
| 时间 | M1同比 | PPI同比 | M1-PPI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2000-01 | 19.40% | 0.03% | 19.37% |
| 2000-02 | 15.30% | 1.00% | 14.30% |
| 2000-03 | 18.70% | 1.87% | 16.83% |
| 2000-04 | 21.70% | 2.59% | 19.11% |
| 2000-05 | 22.30% | 2.50% | 19.80% |
| 2000-06 | 23.70% | 2.95% | 20.75% |
| 2000-07 | 22.60% | 4.50% | 18.10% |
| 2000-08 | 21.90% | 3.92% | 17.98% |
| 2000-09 | 20.80% | 3.70% | 17.10% |
| 2000-10 | 18.20% | 3.60% | 14.60% |
| 2000-11 | 17.10% | 3.50% | 13.60% |
| 2000-12 | 16.00% | 2.80% | 13.20% |
| 2001-01 | 16.80% | 1.43% | 15.37% |
| 2001-02 | 16.40% | 0.90% | 15.50% |
| 2001-03 | 17.40% | 0.22% | 17.18% |
| 2001-04 | 15.00% | -0.12% | 15.12% |
| 2001-05 | 13.00% | -0.20% | 13.20% |
| 2001-06 | 14.90% | -0.56% | 15.46% |
| 2001-07 | 11.90% | -1.27% | 13.17% |
| 2001-08 | 14.20% | -1.99% | 16.19% |
| 2001-09 | 12.30% | -2.90% | 15.20% |
| 2001-10 | 12.30% | -3.10% | 15.40% |
| 2001-11 | 11.40% | -3.72% | 15.12% |
| 2001-12 | 12.70% | -3.97% | 16.67% |
| 2002-01 | 9.50% | -4.00% | 13.50% |
| 2002-02 | 10.90% | -4.10% | 15.00% |
| 2002-03 | 10.10% | -3.98% | 14.08% |
| 2002-04 | 11.50% | -3.06% | 14.56% |
| 2002-05 | 14.60% | -2.63% | 17.23% |
| 2002-06 | 12.80% | -2.48% | 15.28% |
| 2002-07 | 17.00% | -2.34% | 19.34% |
| 2002-08 | 14.60% | -1.73% | 16.33% |
| 2002-09 | 15.90% | -1.38% | 17.28% |
| 2002-10 | 17.90% | -1.03% | 18.93% |
| 2002-11 | 18.50% | -0.41% | 18.91% |
| 2002-12 | 16.80% | 0.41% | 16.39% |
| 2003-01 | 19.50% | 2.38% | 17.12% |
| 2003-02 | 18.80% | 3.97% | 14.83% |
| 2003-03 | 20.10% | 4.60% | 15.50% |
| 2003-04 | 18.00% | 3.62% | 14.38% |
| 2003-05 | 18.80% | 1.96% | 16.84% |
| 2003-06 | 20.20% | 1.34% | 18.86% |
| 2003-07 | 20.00% | 1.39% | 18.61% |
| 2003-08 | 18.80% | 1.38% | 17.42% |
| 2003-09 | 18.50% | 1.37% | 17.13% |
| 2003-10 | 19.60% | 1.20% | 18.40% |
| 2003-11 | 18.90% | 1.92% | 16.98% |
| 2003-12 | 18.70% | 2.99% | 15.71% |
| 2004-01 | 15.70% | 3.47% | 12.23% |
| 2004-02 | 19.80% | 3.54% | 16.26% |
| 2004-03 | 20.10% | 3.99% | 16.11% |
| 2004-04 | 20.00% | 5.01% | 14.99% |
| 2004-05 | 18.60% | 5.70% | 12.90% |
| 2004-06 | 16.20% | 6.40% | 9.80% |
| 2004-07 | 15.00% | 6.38% | 8.62% |
| 2004-08 | 15.10% | 6.81% | 8.29% |
| 2004-09 | 13.70% | 7.90% | 5.80% |
| 2004-10 | 12.60% | 8.43% | 4.17% |
| 2004-11 | 13.80% | 8.10% | 5.70% |
| 2004-12 | 13.60% | 7.07% | 6.53% |
| 2005-01 | 15.30% | 5.81% | 9.49% |
| 2005-02 | 10.60% | 5.38% | 5.22% |
| 2005-03 | 9.90% | 5.64% | 4.26% |
| 2005-04 | 10.00% | 5.78% | 4.22% |
| 2005-05 | 10.40% | 5.90% | 4.50% |
| 2005-06 | 11.30% | 5.24% | 6.06% |
| 2005-07 | 11.00% | 5.19% | 5.81% |
| 2005-08 | 11.50% | 5.26% | 6.24% |
| 2005-09 | 11.60% | 4.50% | 7.10% |
| 2005-10 | 12.10% | 4.01% | 8.09% |
| 2005-11 | 12.70% | 3.21% | 9.49% |
| 2005-12 | 11.80% | 3.22% | 8.58% |
| 2006-01 | 10.60% | 3.05% | 7.55% |
| 2006-02 | 12.40% | 3.01% | 9.39% |
| 2006-03 | 12.70% | 2.49% | 10.21% |
| 2006-04 | 12.50% | 1.87% | 10.63% |
| 2006-05 | 14.00% | 2.43% | 11.57% |
| 2006-06 | 13.90% | 3.52% | 10.38% |
| 2006-07 | 15.30% | 3.58% | 11.72% |
| 2006-08 | 15.60% | 3.40% | 12.20% |
| 2006-09 | 15.70% | 3.45% | 12.25% |
| 2006-10 | 16.30% | 2.90% | 13.40% |
| 2006-11 | 16.80% | 2.78% | 14.02% |
| 2006-12 | 17.50% | 3.05% | 14.45% |
| 2007-01 | 19.80% | 3.30% | 16.50% |
| 2007-02 | 21.00% | 2.60% | 18.40% |
| 2007-03 | 19.80% | 2.65% | 17.15% |
| 2007-04 | 20.00% | 2.87% | 17.13% |
| 2007-05 | 19.30% | 2.76% | 16.54% |
| 2007-06 | 20.90% | 2.49% | 18.41% |
| 2007-07 | 20.90% | 2.39% | 18.51% |
| 2007-08 | 22.80% | 2.56% | 20.24% |
| 2007-09 | 22.10% | 2.71% | 19.39% |
| 2007-10 | 22.20% | 3.21% | 18.99% |
| 2007-11 | 21.70% | 4.55% | 17.15% |
| 2007-12 | 21.00% | 5.43% | 15.57% |
| 2008-01 | 20.50% | 6.07% | 14.43% |
| 2008-02 | 19.00% | 6.62% | 12.38% |
| 2008-03 | 18.00% | 7.95% | 10.05% |
| 2008-04 | 19.10% | 8.12% | 10.98% |
| 2008-05 | 17.90% | 8.22% | 9.68% |
| 2008-06 | 14.20% | 8.84% | 5.36% |
| 2008-07 | 14.00% | 10.03% | 3.97% |
| 2008-08 | 11.50% | 10.06% | 1.44% |
| 2008-09 | 9.40% | 9.13% | 0.27% |
| 2008-10 | 8.90% | 6.59% | 2.31% |
| 2008-11 | 6.80% | 1.99% | 4.81% |
| 2008-12 | 9.10% | -1.14% | 10.24% |
| 2009-01 | 6.70% | -3.35% | 10.05% |
| 2009-02 | 10.90% | -4.47% | 15.37% |
| 2009-03 | 17.00% | -5.99% | 22.99% |
| 2009-04 | 17.50% | -6.60% | 24.10% |
| 2009-05 | 18.70% | -7.20% | 25.90% |
| 2009-06 | 24.80% | -7.80% | 32.60% |
| 2009-07 | 26.40% | -8.22% | 34.62% |
| 2009-08 | 27.70% | -7.86% | 35.56% |
| 2009-09 | 29.50% | -6.99% | 36.49% |
| 2009-10 | 32.00% | -5.85% | 37.85% |
| 2009-11 | 36.60% | -2.08% | 38.68% |
| 2009-12 | 32.40% | 1.70% | 30.70% |
| 2010-01 | 39.00% | 4.32% | 34.68% |
| 2010-02 | 35.00% | 5.39% | 29.61% |
| 2010-03 | 29.90% | 5.91% | 23.99% |
| 2010-04 | 31.30% | 6.81% | 24.49% |
| 2010-05 | 29.90% | 7.13% | 22.77% |
| 2010-06 | 24.60% | 6.41% | 18.19% |
| 2010-07 | 22.90% | 4.84% | 18.06% |
| 2010-08 | 21.90% | 4.32% | 17.58% |
| 2010-09 | 20.90% | 4.33% | 16.57% |
| 2010-10 | 22.10% | 5.04% | 17.06% |
| 2010-11 | 22.10% | 6.06% | 16.04% |
| 2010-12 | 21.20% | 5.93% | 15.27% |
| 2011-01 | 13.60% | 6.64% | 6.96% |
| 2011-02 | 14.50% | 7.23% | 7.27% |
| 2011-03 | 15.00% | 7.31% | 7.69% |
| 2011-04 | 12.90% | 6.82% | 6.08% |
| 2011-05 | 12.70% | 6.79% | 5.91% |
| 2011-06 | 13.10% | 7.12% | 5.98% |
| 2011-07 | 11.60% | 7.54% | 4.06% |
| 2011-08 | 11.20% | 7.25% | 3.95% |
| 2011-09 | 8.90% | 6.52% | 2.38% |
| 2011-10 | 8.40% | 5.00% | 3.40% |
| 2011-11 | 7.80% | 2.72% | 5.08% |
| 2011-12 | 7.90% | 1.69% | 6.21% |
| 2012-01 | 3.20% | 0.73% | 2.47% |
| 2012-02 | 4.30% | 0.03% | 4.27% |
| 2012-03 | 4.40% | -0.32% | 4.72% |
| 2012-04 | 3.10% | -0.70% | 3.80% |
| 2012-05 | 3.50% | -1.40% | 4.90% |
| 2012-06 | 4.70% | -2.08% | 6.78% |
| 2012-07 | 4.60% | -2.87% | 7.47% |
| 2012-08 | 4.50% | -3.48% | 7.98% |
| 2012-09 | 7.30% | -3.55% | 10.85% |
| 2012-10 | 6.10% | -2.76% | 8.86% |
| 2012-11 | 5.50% | -2.20% | 7.70% |
| 2012-12 | 6.50% | -1.94% | 8.44% |
| 2013-01 | 15.30% | -1.64% | 16.94% |
| 2013-02 | 9.50% | -1.63% | 11.13% |
| 2013-03 | 11.80% | -1.92% | 13.72% |
| 2013-04 | 11.90% | -2.62% | 14.52% |
| 2013-05 | 11.30% | -2.87% | 14.17% |
| 2013-06 | 9.00% | -2.70% | 11.70% |
| 2013-07 | 9.70% | -2.27% | 11.97% |
| 2013-08 | 9.90% | -1.63% | 11.53% |
| 2013-09 | 8.90% | -1.34% | 10.24% |
| 2013-10 | 8.90% | -1.51% | 10.41% |
| 2013-11 | 9.40% | -1.42% | 10.82% |
| 2013-12 | 9.30% | -1.36% | 10.66% |
| 2014-01 | 1.20% | -1.64% | 2.84% |
| 2014-02 | 6.90% | -2.02% | 8.92% |
| 2014-03 | 5.40% | -2.30% | 7.70% |
| 2014-04 | 5.50% | -2.00% | 7.50% |
| 2014-05 | 5.70% | -1.45% | 7.15% |
| 2014-06 | 8.90% | -1.11% | 10.01% |
| 2014-07 | 6.70% | -0.87% | 7.57% |
| 2014-08 | 5.70% | -1.20% | 6.90% |
| 2014-09 | 4.80% | -1.80% | 6.60% |
| 2014-10 | 3.20% | -2.24% | 5.44% |
| 2014-11 | 3.20% | -2.69% | 5.89% |
| 2014-12 | 3.20% | -3.32% | 6.52% |
| 2015-01 | 10.60% | -4.32% | 14.92% |
| 2015-02 | 5.60% | -4.80% | 10.40% |
| 2015-03 | 2.90% | -4.56% | 7.46% |
| 2015-04 | 3.70% | -4.57% | 8.27% |
| 2015-05 | 4.70% | -4.61% | 9.31% |
| 2015-06 | 4.30% | -4.81% | 9.11% |
| 2015-07 | 6.60% | -5.37% | 11.97% |
| 2015-08 | 9.30% | -5.92% | 15.22% |
| 2015-09 | 11.40% | -5.95% | 17.35% |
| 2015-10 | 14.00% | -5.90% | 19.90% |
| 2015-11 | 15.70% | -5.90% | 21.60% |
| 2015-12 | 15.20% | -5.90% | 21.10% |
| 2016-01 | 18.60% | -5.30% | 23.90% |
| 2016-02 | 17.40% | -4.90% | 22.30% |
| 2016-03 | 22.10% | -4.30% | 26.40% |
| 2016-04 | 22.90% | -3.40% | 26.30% |
| 2016-05 | 23.70% | -2.80% | 26.50% |
| 2016-06 | 24.60% | -2.60% | 27.20% |
| 2016-07 | 25.40% | -1.70% | 27.10% |
| 2016-08 | 25.30% | -0.80% | 26.10% |
| 2016-09 | 24.70% | 0.10% | 24.60% |
| 2016-10 | 23.90% | 1.20% | 22.70% |
| 2016-11 | 22.70% | 3.30% | 19.40% |
| 2016-12 | 21.40% | 5.50% | 15.90% |
| 2017-01 | 14.50% | 6.90% | 7.60% |
| 2017-02 | 21.40% | 7.80% | 13.60% |
| 2017-03 | 18.80% | 7.60% | 11.20% |
| 2017-04 | 18.50% | 6.40% | 12.10% |
| 2017-05 | 17.00% | 5.50% | 11.50% |
| 2017-06 | 15.00% | 5.50% | 9.50% |
| 2017-07 | 15.30% | 5.50% | 9.80% |
| 2017-08 | 14.00% | 6.30% | 7.70% |
| 2017-09 | 14.00% | 6.90% | 7.10% |
| 2017-10 | 13.00% | 6.90% | 6.10% |
| 2017-11 | 12.70% | 5.80% | 6.90% |
| 2017-12 | 11.80% | 4.90% | 6.90% |
| 2018-01 | 15.00% | 4.30% | 10.70% |
| 2018-02 | 8.50% | 3.70% | 4.80% |
| 2018-03 | 7.10% | 3.10% | 4.00% |
| 2018-04 | 7.20% | 3.40% | 3.80% |
| 2018-05 | 6.00% | 4.10% | 1.90% |
| 2018-06 | 6.60% | 4.70% | 1.90% |
| 2018-07 | 5.10% | 4.60% | 0.50% |
| 2018-08 | 3.90% | 4.10% | -0.20% |
| 2018-09 | 4.00% | 3.60% | 0.40% |
| 2018-10 | 2.70% | 3.30% | -0.60% |
| 2018-11 | 1.50% | 2.70% | -1.20% |
| 2018-12 | 1.50% | 0.90% | 0.60% |
| 2019-01 | 0.40% | 0.10% | 0.30% |
| 2019-02 | 2.00% | 0.10% | 1.90% |
| 2019-03 | 4.60% | 0.40% | 4.20% |
| 2019-04 | 2.90% | 0.90% | 2.00% |
| 2019-05 | 3.40% | 0.60% | 2.80% |
| 2019-06 | 4.40% | 0.00% | 4.40% |
| 2019-07 | 3.10% | -0.30% | 3.40% |
| 2019-08 | 3.40% | -0.80% | 4.20% |
| 2019-09 | 3.40% | -1.20% | 4.60% |
| 2019-10 | 3.30% | -1.60% | 4.90% |
| 2019-11 | 3.50% | -1.40% | 4.90% |
| 2019-12 | 4.40% | -0.50% | 4.90% |
| 2020-01 | 0.00% | 0.10% | -0.10% |
| 2020-02 | 4.80% | -0.40% | 5.20% |
| 2020-03 | 5.00% | -1.50% | 6.50% |
| 2020-04 | 5.50% | -3.10% | 8.60% |
| 2020-05 | 6.80% | -3.70% | 10.50% |
| 2020-06 | 6.50% | -3.00% | 9.50% |
| 2020-07 | 6.90% | -2.40% | 9.30% |
| 2020-08 | 8.00% | -2.00% | 10.00% |
| 2020-09 | 8.10% | -2.10% | 10.20% |
| 2020-10 | 9.10% | -2.10% | 11.20% |
| 2020-11 | 10.00% | -1.50% | 11.50% |
| 2020-12 | 8.60% | -0.40% | 9.00% |
| 2021-01 | 14.70% | 0.30% | 14.40% |
| 2021-02 | 7.40% | 1.70% | 5.70% |
| 2021-03 | 7.10% | 4.40% | 2.70% |
| 2021-04 | 6.20% | 6.80% | -0.60% |
| 2021-05 | 6.10% | 9.00% | -2.90% |
| 2021-06 | 5.50% | 8.80% | -3.30% |
| 2021-07 | 4.90% | 9.00% | -4.10% |
| 2021-08 | 4.20% | 9.50% | -5.30% |
| 2021-09 | 3.70% | 10.70% | -7.00% |
| 2021-10 | 2.80% | 13.50% | -10.70% |
| 2021-11 | 3.00% | 12.90% | -9.90% |
| 2021-12 | 3.50% | 10.30% | -6.80% |
| 2022-01 | -1.90% | 9.10% | -11.00% |
| 2022-02 | 4.70% | 8.80% | -4.10% |
| 2022-03 | 4.70% | 8.30% | -3.60% |
| 2022-04 | 5.10% | 8.00% | -2.90% |
| 2022-05 | 4.60% | 6.40% | -1.80% |
| 2022-06 | 5.80% | 6.10% | -0.30% |
| 2022-07 | 6.70% | 4.20% | 2.50% |
| 2022-08 | 6.10% | 2.30% | 3.80% |
| 2022-09 | 6.40% | 0.90% | 5.50% |
| 2022-10 | 5.80% | -1.30% | 7.10% |
| 2022-11 | 4.60% | -1.30% | 5.90% |
| 2022-12 | 3.70% | -0.70% | 4.40% |
| 2023-01 | 6.70% | -0.80% | 7.50% |
| 2023-02 | 5.80% | -1.40% | 7.20% |
| 2023-03 | 5.10% | -2.50% | 7.60% |
| 2023-04 | 5.30% | -3.60% | 8.90% |
| 2023-05 | 4.70% | -4.60% | 9.30% |
| 2023-06 | 3.10% | -5.40% | 8.50% |
| 2023-07 | 2.30% | -4.40% | 6.70% |
| 2023-08 | 2.20% | -3.00% | 5.20% |
| 2023-09 | 2.10% | -2.50% | 4.60% |
| 2023-10 | 1.90% | -2.60% | 4.50% |
| 2023-11 | 1.30% | -3.00% | 4.30% |
| 2023-12 | 1.30% | -2.70% | 4.00% |
| 2024-01 | 3.30% | -2.50% | 5.80% |
| 2024-02 | 2.60% | -2.70% | 5.30% |
| 2024-03 | 2.30% | -2.80% | 5.10% |
| 2024-04 | 0.60% | -2.50% | 3.10% |
| 2024-05 | -0.80% | -1.40% | 0.60% |
| 2024-06 | -1.70% | -0.80% | -0.90% |
| 2024-07 | -2.60% | -0.80% | -1.80% |
| 2024-08 | -3.00% | -1.80% | -1.20% |
| 2024-09 | -3.30% | -2.80% | -0.50% |
| 2024-10 | -2.30% | -2.90% | 0.60% |
| 2024-11 | -3.70% | -2.50% | -1.20% |
| 2024-12 | 1.20% | -2.30% | 3.50% |
| 2025-01 | 0.40% | -2.30% | 2.70% |
| 2025-02 | 0.10% | -2.20% | 2.30% |
| 2025-03 | 1.60% | -2.50% | 4.10% |
| 2025-04 | 1.50% | -2.70% | 4.20% |
| 2025-05 | 2.30% | -3.30% | 5.60% |
| 2025-06 | 4.60% | -3.60% | 8.20% |
| 2025-07 | 5.60% | -3.60% | 9.20% |
| 2025-08 | 6.00% | -2.90% | 8.90% |
| 2025-09 | 7.20% | -2.30% | 9.50% |
| 2025-10 | 6.20% | -2.10% | 8.30% |
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